Larry Jagan Bangkok Post 1 December 2004 The toppling of Khin Nyunt and his group has opened the way for a new generation of officers loyal to the hardline Than Shwe and Maung Aye Burma's Prime Minister Soe Win has assured Asian leaders at the Asean summit taking place in Vientiane this week that his country's national reconciliation process is on course despite the recent changes in government in Rangoon. The National Convention is scheduled to reconvene in February and is expected to draw up a new constitution by the end of next year, according to Asian officials who attended the Asean meeting. But there will be no role for the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi or her political party, the National League for Democracy, until after the referendum on the new constitution, expected to be held in early 2006. Just as the Burmese leader was confidently telling his Asian counterparts that they were committed to his country's democracy road map, initially announced last year by Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt days after he was appointed prime minister, the junta was informing Ms Suu Kyi that her house arrest had beenextended indefinitely. Over the past few weeks, Burma's hardline leader, Senior General Than Shwe, has continued to tightened his grasp on power as more allies and supporters of Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt have been sacked. But as the purge of the pragmatists continues, there are signs that a major shift of power is also under way within the army. A new generation of military officers is beginning to emerge as the country's new leaders _ which may also signal a shift of strategy and policies. Over the past few years, it has been clear that there was a growing division within Burma's military leadership on how to maintain the army's political role in the future and develop the country. It has largely been a rift between the pragmatists around Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, who understand the need for political and economic reform, and the hardliners, Snr Gen Than Shwe and his supporters, who want to hang on to power regardless of the pressure for change within the country and from outside. The power struggle between the pragmatists and the hardliners has now been more than resolved, with Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt and his supporters paying a very heavyprice. The younger Lieutenant-General Soe Win, appointed to replace Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt as prime minister, is reportedly a staunch Than Shwe ally. Opposition activists in exile believe he was the chief architect behind the violent attack on Ms SuuKyi and her entourage in May 2003. ``He may not be as close to the top general as many people assume. He is the fall guy, he is there to deflect international criticism and protect the top men,'' a senior Burmese military source said. Although he is now in charge of running the government on a day-to-day basis, and particularly the national reconciliation process, Lt-Gen Soe Win has very little real authority and must refer everything to the country's top two leaders, Snr Gen Than Shwe and General Maung Aye. ``He's dispensable and will be quickly ditched if necessary,'' another Burmese source said. But the transfer of power is far from over. The purge of Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt and his supporters is likely to be the start of the process rather than the end. Diplomats in Rangoon believe it may not be Snr Gen Than Shwe who is really calling the shots, but Burma's number two, Gen Maung Aye, effectively the armychief. ``There is no doubt that Than Shwe will have been consulted and involved in the events that unfolded, but Gen Maung Aye was clearly the prime mover,'' said a senior Southeast Asian diplomat who regularly deals with Rangoon. The investigation into the activities of the military intelligence officers,including many of their business associates, is being conducted by Gen Maung Aye. All the new appointments to the cabinet are loyal army officers, close to Snr Gen Than Shwe and, more particularly, Gen Maung Aye. More changes are in the pipeline, according to Asian diplomats. There is likely to be a further shake-up of the cabinet, possibly within weeks, a Rangoon-based Southeast Asian diplomat said. This will be followed by a major change among the country's regional commanders. Already the western regional commander is on hisway back to Rangoon to become the new home minister. The regime's top generals have also been talking about the need to transfer power within Burma's military leadership to the next or younger generation. General Thura Shwe Mann, the armed forces chief of staff, is clearly playing a pivotal role in the new regime. A new triumvirate is beginning to emerge, with Gen Maung Aye, Gen Thura Shwe Mann and Lt-Gen Soe Win running the country on a day-to-day basis. Snr Gen Than Shwe is likely to fade into the background, but remain a key figure in the power structure. His role is likely to be a combination of the former Burmese leader Ne Win after 1988 and China's paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, said a western diplomat who closely follows Burmese politics. The next few months are going to be critical while the regime's new leadership works out its strategy and vision for the future. While the opposition parties and the international community hope that the end result may be a more forward-looking leadership, the signs are that the new generals will actually retreat into greater isolationism. An ominous sign for the future was revealed in the state-run newspapers days after Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt was toppled. The government began to urge the Burmese people to start planting trees, just as they did in 1983 when Ne Win staged an internal coup and moved against his army commander, Tin Oo, because he feared he was becoming too popular and posed a potential threat to his power. A generation of military leaders has begun to realise how difficult it is to run the country effectively and efficiently. In the next couple of months they will have their hands full with restructuring the government administration. The UN and international non-governmental organisations in Rangoon have been advised by senior Burmese government officers to keep their heads down for the next few months, when things should return to normal. After meeting the Burmese foreign minister in Vientiane, the UN envoy to Burma Razali Ismail is confident of being allowed to return to Rangoon early next year, according to South East Asian government officials. ``When the dust finally settles, it is possible the junta will also try to restart a form of dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi and even include the NLD in the last phase of the National Convention,'' a senior European diplomat said. ``They know that she holds the key to the future.'' One of the key obstacles to a dialogue with the pro-democracy leader was the problem of who was going to be the interlocutor. That was also a key issue between Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt and Snr Gen Than Shwe; neither trusted the other. Now the way is clear for the senior general to be magnanimous.
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